Value bet calculator
Compare a price with the fair chance. See if the site pays more than the bet is worth.
Free, no account needed. The link keeps your numbers, so you can share them.
Your bet
Example numbers. Type your own.Odds format
Where the fair price comes from
A sharp site is one known for accurate prices, like Pinnacle. Type its price on both sides. The calculator takes its cut out.
Worst case takes the lowest fair chance of the four ways, so it never overstates the value.
The money you keep for betting only.
Result
Value bet
+5.00%value
On average you make $5.00 per $100 bet, over many bets like this. Any one bet can still lose.
- Fair chance it wins
- 50.00%
- Fair oddsBreak-even price
- +100
- Chance your odds imply
- 47.62%
- Full amount (full Kelly)For reference. Bet size bets a share of it.
- 4.55%
- Amount (Normal)Never more than 20% of your betting money
- $11.36
- You win if it wins
- +$12.50
- Average profit on this betOver many bets like it
- +$0.57
How it works
- Type the odds you can bet.
- Give the fair price: fair odds, a fair chance in %, or a sharp site's price on both sides.
- A sharp site is one known for accurate prices, like Pinnacle. The calculator takes its cut out for you.
- Value % = fair chance x your odds - 1. Above 0 means the site pays more than the bet is worth.
- Pick a bet size and type your betting money to get an amount. No bet goes over 20% of your betting money.
Value % = fair chance x decimal odds - 1Fair odds = 1 / fair chanceKelly f = (b x p - (1 - p)) / b, with b = odds - 1Amount = f x bet size x betting money, at most 20% of itCareful = 0.1, Normal = 0.25, Bold = 0.5Example
A coin flip at 2.10
- A sharp site has both sides at 1.91. With its cut taken out, each side is 50%.
- Another site pays 2.10 on your side. Value = 0.50 x 2.10 - 1 = +5.00%.
- The full Kelly amount on $1,000 is 4.55%, or $45.45.
- Normal bets a quarter of that: $11.36.
These are the numbers already in the calculator above.
Questions
What is a value bet?
A bet where the site pays more than the true chance says it should. This is also called +EV (positive expected value). Any one bet can still lose, but many bets like it should come out ahead over time.
Where does the fair chance come from?
Usually from a sharp site, one whose prices are seen as the most accurate. Take its prices on both sides and take out its cut. WynFynd uses Pinnacle's prices for this by default.
What is the worst case?
There are four common ways to take out a site's cut, and they disagree a little when one side is a favourite. Worst case uses the lowest fair chance any of them gives, so the value is never overstated. It is WynFynd's default.
Why not bet the full Kelly amount?
The full amount assumes you know the true chance exactly, and it swings hard. Each bet size bets a share of it: Careful = 0.1, Normal = 0.25, Bold = 0.5. Your money grows a little slower, with much smaller swings. WynFynd uses Normal by default.
Does a value bet always win?
No. A value bet can lose, and losing runs are normal. The value shows up over hundreds of bets: with 5% value on coin-flip bets, about 3 in 10 bettors are still behind after 100 bets.
Learn the idea
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