Skip to content
Log inStart trialStart 14-day trial

Beat the final price

The best sign your bets are good: did you get a better price than the last one before the game?

3 min readChecked on Oct 31, 2026

The final price is a bet's last price before the game starts. By then the site has seen all the money and all the news. So Pinnacle's final price is about the best guess of the true chance anyone has.

Beat the final price (also called closing line value, or CLV) asks one question. Did you get a better price than that?

Vs final = your odds x final fair chance - 1

The final fair chance is Pinnacle's last price with its cut taken out (see the fair price). A positive number means you beat the final price.

It is the same math as a value bet. It just uses the final price instead of the price when you bet.

Example

You beat the final price

  1. You bet at 2.10.
  2. Just before the start, Pinnacle has your side at 1.95 and the other side at 1.95. The fair chance is 50.00%.
  3. Vs final = 2.10 x 0.50 - 1 = +5.00%.
Example

The price moved against you

  1. You bet at 2.10.
  2. It ends with your side at 2.25 and the other side at 1.69. The fair chance for your side (worst case) is 42.51%.
  3. Vs final = 2.10 x 0.4251 - 1 = -10.73%.
  4. The market moved away from your side, so your price was worse than fair.

Why it tells you more than profit

Results are noisy. Even real value bets can leave you behind after hundreds of bets (see value bets).

Beating the final price is much less noisy. Every bet gets its number when its game starts, win or lose. Say your average stays positive over a few hundred bets. That is the best sign you have that your bets are good, whatever this month's profit says.

It works the other way too. A winning month with a negative average usually means luck, and luck doesn't last.

What the number means

It is the best measure of the value a bet really had. An average of +2% over many bets means your prices were about 2% better than fair. Small numbers matter here. A percent or two, kept over hundreds of bets, is real value.

It can't judge a single bet. A bet at +5% can lose, and one at -5% can win. Only the average over many bets tells you something.

How WynFynd tracks it

When a game starts, WynFynd saves Pinnacle's last prices before the game. It does this for every open bet you logged on that game. Then it takes the cut out and stores the fair chance.

My bets shows Vs final for each bet, and how often you beat the final price.

  • Some bets have no Pinnacle price, often player props and smaller leagues. Those bets show no Vs final.
  • Only bets logged before the game starts get a final price.
  • On a both-sides bet, one side usually beats the final price and the other doesn't. That's fine: it made its money when you placed every side.

Good habits

  • Bet soon after you find a price, before the market moves toward it.
  • Judge it over a few hundred bets, not ten.
  • Compare like with like. Final prices on props and small leagues are rougher, so they tell you less.
  • Losing to the final price over a long run? Change what you bet before you change how much.

Try it